Blizzard '11 - January 31

A historic event is expected to unfold in mid-Missouri, and in fact in most of Missouri tomorrow and Wednesday.  Having grown up in Missouri, I have seen snow storms come and go.  Most of the 'big' storms have been such that provided a nice blanket of 6-10" (as we just experienced on the 20-21st), and I can count on one hand the times we have had extreme snowfalls of 12-15".  Nothing comes close to what has been churning for the past few days, and what may possibly come through in the next 12 hours. 

The Setup

A split flow in the jet stream has merged dropping down a large polar air mass that is expected to bring sub-zero temperatures by Wednesday night.  At the same time, a huge storm will be ejected out of Texas bringing an enormous amount of moisture tapped from the gulf.  Below is a graphic showing the projected path of the surface low that will cause this storm.

Here is the 2-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast valid Monday night:

These amounts are extreme, even during spring torrents that visit the area.  But to have a snowstorm bring such rain is unprecedented during this generation.

On the right side of my blog, I show the NWS STL graphical snow forecast.  This changes with each cycle of the model runs, and this image was captured at 6:00 am Tuesday morning.  Amazing totals.

Finally, a first has happened in the history of the NWS STL.  Never before have they issued a Blizzard Warning for their CFA.  As you can see below, much of Missouri is under a blizzard warning from 6 am Tuesday till noon Wednesday.  Blizzard conditions include heavy snow, 35+ mph sustained winds, and 1/4 mile visibility for at least 3 hours.

Of course, this storm is not affecting only our area.  Many people will be affected by this dangerous system across the country.  A crippling ice storm is expected for southern Illinois into Indiana, and the heavy snow will continue northeastward into the already battered New England states.  The warning map below was captured early this afternoon.

Snow Watch Jan. 31 - Feb. 2

Another GFS map, only focused on the STL CWA

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LSX

Snow January 19-20

::Update::

I've added a couple of videos from the storm.  The first one is at my first observation at 5:00 p.m. 




This next video was at 11:00 p.m., my last observation before morning. 5.4" on the ground at the time.



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Jan 20
9:15 a.m.

Total Snow:  8.5"

Light snow is steady but tapering off.  Wind N 12 mph

Find more pictures HERE


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Jan 20
6:00 a.m.

Total Snow:  8.2"

What a cool sight this is!  We haven't had this much snow fall since the big storm on Nov. 30-Dec. 1 2006.  It's been a long time coming.  Presently, light snow is falling with a light north wind.

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Jan 19
11:00 p.m.

Total Snow:  5.4"

Moderate snowfall still occurring at this time.  Wind N 13mph

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Jan 19
9:30 p.m.

Total Snow:  3.8"

Snow rate has intensified, as we have picked up an additional 1.9" over the past hour and 45 minutes.

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Jan. 19
7:45 p.m.

Total Snow:  1.9"

Wind has picked up a bit close to 10 mph out of NE.  Light to moderate snow.

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Jan. 19
6:40 p.m.

Total Snow:  1.2"

Light to moderate snow falling, little to no wind

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Jan. 19
5:00 p.m.

Total Snow:  0.25"

Snow began lightly around 4:15, and is quickly intensifying.  It didn't take long for the roads to slicken up. 

January 10-11 Snow

Snow fell again in mid-Missouri, and it's a beautiful sight.  Around 11:00 am, light snow began to fall, and throughout the day, we experienced steady moderate snowfall, tapering to light snow by evening and finally ending around 3:00 a.m.  This morning, the 11th, we have frigid air spilling in.  Currently it is 12° with a wind chill reading around 5. 

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Jan. 11, 4:30 a.m. observation:

Snow has stopped around 3:00 a.m..  The wind has started to pick up a bit as this storm makes its way by us.

Total Snow:  4.6"

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Jan. 10, 9:45 p.m. observation:

Still snowing at this time.  The intensity has definitely tapered off, and the east wind has all but quit.  Currently, light snow is falling with some nice conglomerate flakes mixed in.

Total Snow:  2.9"
SWE:  0.25"  (11.6 : 1)

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Jan. 10, 6:30 p.m. observation:

2.4" and still snowing

Christmas Eve Snow

It's not often we get snow on Christmas, and it's even less often that we get it two years in a row.  Last Christmas, the middle of the country was graced with a powerful storm that spun into the area, sat on Iowa for a while, and went on its way, giving millions of people a white Christmas.  Although we didn't measure much snow from that system, it was impressive and memorable.  Here's a link from last year's post. 

This year's storm was a different beast.  It was faster, and gave us a beautiful wet snow all day Christmas Eve.  We were in Rolla visiting my family, and watching the snow falling slowly through the bare trees was awesome.  I took the liberty of bringing one of my extra rain gauges on our travel to measure the water content of the snow.  It was a wet 9.3 : 1 ratio.  Contrast that to the nearly 20 : 1 snow we had on the 11th.  Geez, if this snow had that ratio, our snow total would have more than doubled.  That made me wonder on our trip home...what is/are the factors that affect this ratio?  I assume primarilly temperature.  I also assume that one could accurately predict the type of snow based on this factor, which could end up saving cities money on salt/cinder they throw on the roads...but I digress.

In Rolla, I measured 2.8", which melted down to 0.30".  In Fulton, we ended up with 3.5" melting down to 0.37".  The roads are great...dry in fact, which I presume is a result of the wet snow.  That's what led me to my inquiries above during our drive home today.

Merry Christmas!

Cold Start to December / Dec 16 Ice

We have experienced a colder than normal start to the month with a mean temperature of 26.0°, a -8.2° departure for the period of Dec. 1-15.  As seen from the chart below temperatures have been below average, but of note are two periods of cold (4-8) and (12-15).  Both brought breezy canadian air with it, and the latter gave us our 2" mini-blizzard on the 11th and 12th. 

Ice Dec. 15-16

An upper-level disturbance is bringing snow to the upper plains and through to the east coast.  As it developed, it brought light freezing drizzle/rain to our area.  Barely enough to measure in the rain gauge, but it was enough to create a thin glaze on roads and elevated surfaces (enough to call off schools even).  Below is this morning's radar showing the long band of snow affecting the nation.

Dec. 11-12 Winter Storm

(Source:  NWS STL)

Update 8:00 a.m.

The snow ended early this morning and the wind didn't let up a bit all night.  With gusts sustaining in the upper 30 mph range, it made for some difficult snow measurements this morning.  I made multiple measurements around the yard, and came up with a 2.0" total.  This storm reminds me of the January 6-7, 2010 storm.  Strong NW winds made similar drifting patterns, although more exaggerated due to double the amount of snow then.  Pictures from that storm can be found here.  Compare those with this year's storm.

Here are a couple of pictures from the storm:

Update 12:00 a.m.

Snow is currently falling with vigor in Missouri again.  After much anticipation, we will reach our first inch tonight.  We reached our maximum temperature of 46° around 10:00 am, and by 10:00 pm we were at 17°.  Morning rain changed to a mist, and then quit for a while.  Around 2:00 we started seeing flurries flying around, which intensified bit by bit through the evening hours.  Tonight, at 12:00 am snow is falling at a moderate rate and wind gusts are reaching 40 mph.  The current temp is 16°.

I tried to make a measurement, and my best estimation is a current depth of 0.5".  Below is a video I shot and the coinciding radar image at 11:45 pm.