Friday, January 28, 2011

Snow Watch Jan. 31 - Feb. 2




Another GFS map, only focused on the STL CWA

16 comments:

OSNW3 said...

I am excited to see how much that map changes over the next 36 hours...

WxWatcher said...

Indeed! Meteorologists here are on the fence, and no one is talking much about it. Lots of uncertainty, for sure.

One time, when I lived in Springfield, MO we were forecasted to have 18-20" overnight and through the next day. I was student teaching at the time, and every school in the area called school off before sundown of the previous day. We ended up with 1/2" :o) It was the best "snow day" ever.

Ami Jo said...

WHAT!?!?! Are you kidding me??

I am sooooooo ready for constant warm weather!!! I'm want to be complaining about the heat! I think I'll go on strike. Anyone with me?

WxWtchr, will you please become a meteorologist and change the forcast for your favorite sister (well, your favorite closest-to-you-in-age sister)??? Pretty please???

Christy said...

Your other favorite sister agrees with your favorite sister that's closest in age to you!!!! And Ami Jo, I will go on strike with you!!!!

Ami Jo said...

I tried to click "Like" on your comment, Chris... but then realized this isn't facebook. LOL

WxWtchr, I noticed the graphic has changed. Looks like the snow is expected to be heavy, but only in a small band. Maybe it will miss us?

WxWatcher said...

Two things are in question: The track of the storm, and the subsequent warm air advection that the storm will pull up. The sharp snowfall totals on the lower part of the "bullseye" reflects this. Unfortunately, if you are on this lower snowfall region, that probably means you will have a significant ice event. If things shape up the way it seems, it's going to be a mess for many.

Christy said...

LOL @ Ami!! I did the same thing!! Hmmm, maybe we are related! ;-)

Ok WxWatcher, I can't read your maps well. Tell me exactly what it is looking like for our county, please. Plus, I am sending a link to your blog to one of our science teachers. He is new to the building and younger than you, but he reminds me of you at times. :)

Ami Jo said...

Chris ~ I think with some DNA testing, we could prove we are related.

If you click on WxWatcher's graphic, it will open up in a big window, then you can click on Missouri to get a close-up view. For now, we are in the red, which, according to the key at the bottom, indicates we are forecasted for some crazy amount of snow, like 16" or so. Yikes!

It will be interesting to see how/if it changes tomorrow.

WxWatcher said...

Christy - I think Ami answered your question well. Phelps county looks to be in the significant area of snow, but a damaging ice storm is still very possible for you as well. But these next 24 hours are critical for the genesis of the storm. Much could (and will) change before then. The NWS should start issuing watches/advisories by tonight or tomorrow morning.

We have 3 big projects due in Jr. High next week (2 on Monday and 1 on Friday). I have to say that the snow days have really messed up our pace! One of our parents suggested taking the whole month of January off and having one less month over summer. I like it.

Ami Jo said...

Crawford county is already under a Winter Weather Advisory. Dave at Fox 2 says we could see up to 1/2" of ice along with this storm. He said it has the potential to be like nothing we have seen in a long time. Said it will be like a mix of the ice storm of 2006 mixed with the blizzard of 1982 (which I don't personally remember, but have heard about)

Should be interesting!!

OSNW3 said...

WxWatcher, pretty exciting stuff. Has this baby entered the US yet?

WxWatcher said...

The southern sysem is hitting northern CA right now.

It's been amazing how much the GFS model has NOT changed in the past 2 days. There's still time for it to change, even significantly, so we'll see!

Hope you get a lot out of this, too!

OSNW3 said...

Oh, hey. About your last snow storm, Jan 19-20, fitting into the LRC. Fits perfectly with the storm that rolled through your area Nov 29-30. I was trying to compare your surface analysis but seems you were unable to get a report in the 30th. Also, the Jan 10-11 snow you got fits in with the Nov 25 precip you got. All within the 47-52 day cycle length. The cycle durations and seasonal effects on the pattern are extremely evident in your neck of the woods. I will admit it is difficult to pin point, but I used the 500mb plots, archived radar, and surface analysis to come to my conclusion.

And with watching this storm evolve and then analyzing it with the past two times it has rolled through the cycle... well, is gonna be sweet.

WxWatcher said...

OSNW3, thanks for looking into the cycle with my data. I've been wanting to do that, but with the move I'm all out of sorts. Probably why there were some holes in the cocorahs reports. I've been keeping daily records on our computer, but have been sparse in reporting online. Hopefully I'll have some time off this week to do that ;)

You know, I thought back to my comment I made on your blog back in October when this storm first made its introduction. I asked you to imagine if this happened a few months into winter. I may be getting a first-hand look at my answer. I have reserved excitement about the storm, and plan on making as much documentation as possible. I'll want it years from now, I know.

Oh, FYI the Nov. 30 report should have been 0.12", Dec. 1 was Trace (that, of course is the CoCoRaHS report. The precip fell the days before)

OSNW3 said...

I look forward to your photographs and blog reports!

About the LRC investigation, I studied your data for about an hour. It's a swag guess in all respect. I am 100% positive we could debate my opinions on the matter...

Man, I sure hope the Oshkosh School District gets a snow day from this. I kinda made bets with a few teachers during xmas break about this storm... :)

WxWatcher said...

Thanks, that gives me motivation to get rid of this back log that I have.

Good luck with your bet!