Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Another 1.1" and Thoughts on Winter 11-12

Thursday, January 12 brought with it another 1.1" of snow.  We were fortunate to not have school called off, although we were one of only three in Mid-MO that did not.  Don't get me wrong, I love snow days, but with the warm winter we've been having, I haven't really felt the "need" to have a day off.  The kids have been great, we've spent a lot of time outside, and we're kind of in this groove at school.  Every January and February I teach Astronomy, but it is inevitably interrupted many times by snow days, wreaking havoc on any continuity required for deep understanding.  So this year has been nice.

Again.  I love snow days.  Let's see if we get one this year.

My thoughts on this winter.  I usually get quite upset if we go this long into the season without a nice snowstorm or two.  But not this year.  We have reached above 60 degrees and even 70 a number of times.  I believe we have broken two high temperature records (at Columbia), and our rainfall has been somewhat average.  I've really enjoyed it.  I think the thing I have noticed and appreciate the most is the abundant sunshine.  This pattern sure has many meteorologists puzzled, as Alaska and northern Canada have been in the deep freeze for most of the winter with temperatures steady in the -20 to -40s.  Each week there is talk of this cold air spilling southward, and each week it stays where it is. 

Groundhog day is only 2 weeks away.  Lots can happen in two weeks in the midwest.

14 comments:

Bob said...

You may see a portion of the storm we got yesterday (4+" here). There may be more snow here today too. Stay warm!

WxWatcher said...

I sure wouldn't mind, Bob. I'm sure the snow is beautiful in your area. Wouldn't mind a nice blanket here, too!

OSNW3 said...
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OSNW3 said...
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OSNW3 said...

EDIT #2 (wrong link, ugh!)

I tossed something together I think you may have interest in. It is a daily max temperature forecast trend for Columbia, MO based on the LRC. I am interested in what you think about it. Perhaps you'd like to follow along for verification purposes? :)

link to the trend

wxwtchr said...

OSNW3, at first glance...this is amazing! There are some definite trends that line up. I look forward to more analysis.

How did you come up with this?

OSNW3 said...

wxwtcher, it is amazing. The LRC is amazing. I am glad you have some interest in following along! :)

I will admit, I've spent a few hours on this project. I plan to add precipitation chances into it next. And then after that anything else that we (LRC'ers) desire to toss into it for it to become a fully sensible long range weather trend suite of information. :)

The guts are in utilizing the many ways to code in Excel. The most difficult part of it now is the inconsistent retrieval of surface station data. I could directly use your station data if you wanted... which is a direction I'd like to go, making it personal using the persons personal instrument data from their backyard.

The best thing about it... is after each recurrence the validity of the trend grows!

OSNW3 said...

I made one for Bob's backyard, too. It is a goal of mine to study the PacNW in regards to the LRC. Early indications lean towards a more dynamic flow due to being farther from the long term longwave troughs and ridges...

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/TempDFOTX1112.html

OSNW3 said...

Edit: ugh. forgot to link it.

BOB

wxwtchr said...

I am simply amazed at the consistencies in the temperature trends. I printed it off so I can follow along each cycle.

THANK you for all the work you put into this.

If these trends continue, it looks like an early spring. I spent all day Saturday fly fishing at one of our beautiful spring-fed creeks and am now ready for warmer weather and more time outside!

OSNW3 said...

wxwtchr, I will do my best to update the trends each day but it will more likely be once or twice a week. :)

Is your temp data online via wundground or anything? I would enjoy pin pointing your backyard instead of someone else's in Columbia, MO. :)

wxwtchr said...

My data is currently offline due to technical difficulties at home. Once I get it up again, I'll let you know.

66 yesterday
65 today

wxwtchr said...

I'm interested to see how the LRC can find precipitation trends. I know you've tracked this the past couple of years. Have you found much validity in the cycling precip data?

OSNW3 said...

I am putting that together right now. I have a beta version on the Oshkosh graph.

Oshkosh, WI