December Outlook...Cold and Active??

Record cold October...check

Near record warm November...check

Record cold December?

I saw an interesting blog entry from the local TV station (KMIZ) tonight.  They frequently do a superb job of keeping the public updated with any potential weather threat as early as they can.  This particular entry caught my attention with the words "colder than average month, and very active as well".

Watch the video

This reminds me of the last significant snow event we experienced here in Fulton.  It was November 30 - December 1, 2006.  Fulton officially recorded 14.2" during that period.  Interestingly enough, I was watching the weather that day (no school that day obviously), when I saw an advertisement for CoCoRaHS on the local CBS station, it was the first I had heard of it.

Here is the great write up the NWS in St. Louis made on the storm.

They added an amazing satellite pic from the MODIS polar orbiting satellite that shows the grandeur of this awesome storm.  OSNW3, looking at your data, you managed to squeeze 1.1" out of the system.

(Source:  nasa.gov)

Follow the source link for higher-resolution pictures

October Re-visited

I'll start today's post with an interesting statistic for the year:

The wettest month this year was October -- with a total rainfall of 12.49".
Immediately following this, we experienced our driest period of the year, with 16 days of no measurable precipitation (>T)

After a very warm beginning to November, October is back with temperatures in the 40s and all-day rain events.  Some cooler air is spilling in behind the storm system bringing 5-8" of snow to Kansas.  Our first rain of the month came on the 15th with 2.08".  I thought we might actually have a month with below average precip, but I'm starting to think again.  These poor farmers in Callaway County are having a hard time getting their crops in.  There are still fields half-full of corn in places.

What Month is This?

It seems October and November made a switch this year.  What an amazing shift in weather!  The month of October, with its 12.49" precip total, under average temperatures, and even some snow to the upper midwest, gave way to the most pleasant beginning to November I can remember.  The past 9 days have simply been a delight.  We have enjoyed dry weather, sunny skies, and above-average temps every day so far.

We have gone 11 days now without any measurable precipitation, which is the first time since February 25th of this year.  With a 40% chance of showers today, we might be able to extend this dry spell even longer. 

I don't mind, as long as it gets cold and nasty by the time deer season rolls around.

An October To Remember

--- Updated 11/4 ---

This summer was quiet in the world of weather blogs.  We have more than made up for it this month, though.  October 2009 brought with it record cold and wet weather.  We saw a couple mornings with frost early on, but for the most part, the temperature stayed above freezing overnight.  Here are some notable stats on the month:

• We experienced 21 days with at least a trace of precip
• Average Temperature:  50.8° *4th coldest October*
• Total Precip:  12.49" *New Record for Fulton*
• Fun Fact:
• Every Thursday was wet
• Every Saturday was dry <-- Correlation?
  

Click HERE for MO-CW-1 Daily Observations

Temperatures

We only exceeded the average high temperature 5 times this month.

Highest Temp:  75° on Oct. 20

Lowest Temp:  30° on Oct. 18

Mean High (average):  59.3° (68.0°)  |  -8.7

Mean Low (average):  42.4° (44.1°)  |  +1.7

Mean Temp (average):  50.8° (56.0°)  |  +5.2

Days Above Average High:  5

Days Below Average High:  26



Precipitation


Days with measurable precipitation:  18

Days with thunder:  5

Our yearly total so far.  The average yearly precipitation total for Fulton is 41.22"

Looking at a comparison of the past three Octobers gives you an idea of the huge month this has been.

Monthly Average:  3.25"

Finally, a data disaggregation of our precip this month:

Looking Ahead to November

Looking at the CPC models, a drier and warmer start to November seems to be the hand dealt to us.  I am glad for the break.  I'd like to take some time analyzing the past month some more.  I'm sure I'll want to know more about what happened a few years from now.

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